The post Crypto Isn’t Topping Yet: Arthur Hayes Says Stealth QE Is Near appeared com. Arthur Hayes argues that the next leg of the crypto cycle will be driven not by a headline pivot to quantitative easing, but by a “stealth” version executed through the Federal Reserve’s Standing Repo Facility (SRF).” As he frames the core mechanism: “Government issued debt grows the money supply.” Hayes’ logic chain begins with an observation on political incentives and the arithmetic of public finance. Governments can fund spending with “savings or debt,” and in his view elected officials “will always favor borrowing from the future to get re-elected in the present.” For the United States, he contends that the trajectory is already set: “Here are the estimates from the TBTF banksters, and a few US government agencies. As you can see, the estimates are for ~$2 trillion deficits funded by ~$2 trillion of borrowing.” In his model, once one accepts that “Yearly Federal Deficit = Yearly Treasury Debt Issuance Amount,” the next critical question is who actually buys that debt, and on what financing. Fed’s Stealth QE Will “Pump Crypto” He dismisses foreign central banks as dependable marginal buyers after the US sanctioned and immobilized Russian reserves in 2022. “If Pax Americana is willing to steal Russia’s money. then no foreign owner of treasuries is ever safe,” he writes, concluding reserve managers “would rather buy gold than treasuries.” He likewise downplays the capacity of the US household sector given that “the 2024 personal savings rate was 4. 6%” while “the US federal deficit was.