The post Crypto carnage Is Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle over? Trade Secrets appeared com. Is this crypto market cycle over after four years or should the four-year crypto market cycle theory itself be consigned to history? Swan Bitcoin CEO and Bitcoin advocate Cory Klippsten leans toward the latter view. “There is a very good chance that Bitcoin’s famous four-year price cycles are over, killed by institutional adoption,” Klippsten tells Magazine. The debate has Bitcoin analysts around the world divided. Some insist the four-year cycle is still alive; others say it is dead and argue that Bitcoin is following a completely different path altogether. So who’s right? We’re now halfway through what’s usually Bitcoin’s strongest month of the year, yet the price is now lower today than it was on Jan. 1. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $92,170, down almost 13% over the past seven days. Not exactly great news for the Tom Lees and Arthur Hayes of the world who were calling for $250,000 by the end of the year. If Bitcoin’s four-year cycle were still in play, Bitcoin’s October all-time high of $125,100 would technically mark the cycle top. That’s roughly 18 months after the April 2024 Bitcoin halving event, which fits the traditional pattern of an 18-month post-halving bull run, followed by a steep correction and a long downturn that typically lasts until the next halving. Klippsten argues that if Bitcoin hits a new all-time high in 2026 or avoids a drawdown of more than 70%, it would show that the four-year cycle is finished. He thinks that’s likely because the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 changed the game. Bitcoin is down 14% over the past 30 days. (CoinMarketCap) Spot Bitcoin ETFs changed Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics Echoing Klippsten, Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, says the spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are.
