**HBAR Price Drops 16% Weekly but Holds Flat Post-Breakdown, Sparking “Bear Trap” Speculation**

The price of Hedera (HBAR) has recently experienced a sharp decline, dropping 16% over the past week. Despite this significant breakdown, the price has held relatively flat in the hours following the drop, fueling speculation about a potential “bear trap.” This phenomenon is often linked to crowded short positions and weak follow-through momentum.

### Understanding the Bear Trap Risk

A bear trap occurs when a price briefly reverses direction after a breakdown, catching short-sellers off guard. In such cases, the price turns upwards, forcing those who shorted the asset to close their positions at a loss. While HBAR’s recent breakdown below a key support level has been clear, the current market positioning remains precarious. It is important not to assume that the downward move will continue uninterrupted.

### HBAR’s Breakdown and the Potential for Rebound

One catalyst for a possible HBAR price rebound could be short liquidations. The key factor pointing to this is the price action on the chart: HBAR broke below the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern, but follow-through selling has been weak so far.

Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen approximately 16% over the past week, reflecting bearish momentum. However, the price has stabilized and held flat for the last 24 hours, further fueling speculation of a bear trap. Despite heavy short interest, some analysts believe HBAR could briefly reverse upwards.

### Current Trading and Price Outlook

As of November 16, 2025, HBAR is trading around $0.14957, with recent trading seeing a slight 0.4% drop after dipping close to $0.16 before a modest recovery. Institutional selling has been observed near significant resistance levels.

Looking ahead, some analysts predict a potential rise to $0.22 by late November 2025. Over the course of 2025, forecasts suggest a trading range between $0.16 and $0.30, buoyed by growing institutional adoption and increased network activity.

### Recent Price History and Market Uncertainty

The latest price movements reveal a notable trend tied to broader market influences. On November 14, 2025, HBAR slipped below an important support level it had maintained for weeks, following the general weakness in Bitcoin.

On November 13, 2025, HBAR dropped 3.5% as it broke this crucial support, despite institutional ETF inflows reportedly totaling $68 million. Though a bearish head and shoulders pattern has been completed, several factors add to market uncertainty:

– Price action has been largely flat since the breakdown.
– Market participants observe potential signs of a bear trap developing.
– Short positions in the derivatives market vastly outnumber long positions.
– A price reversal could trigger short-sellers to cover their positions, driving buying pressure.

### Signs of Changing Sentiment and Long-Term Optimism

After initial net outflows, there are emerging signs of renewed buying interest, with tokens flowing back to exchanges. This suggests a possible shift in market sentiment.

Long-term optimism around HBAR remains robust. Analysts highlight the token’s unique technology, expanding enterprise adoption, and a growing ecosystem as fundamental strengths driving positive sentiment.

### Conclusion

The combination of technical indicators and fundamental factors creates a complex outlook for HBAR. The potential for a bear trap, fueled by crowded short positions and weak breakdown follow-through, adds an intriguing dynamic to the token’s price action. Investors should monitor the situation closely, as key movements in the coming days could shape HBAR’s trajectory significantly.
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