Experienced Analyst Issues Warning for Bitcoin in November – Also Provides a Date to Pay Particular Attention To
2025 年 11 月 1 日
Cryptocurrency analyst Timothy Peterson recently issued a warning to investors about the potential risk of a Bitcoin price decline in November. Sharing his insights on social media, Peterson drew attention to the striking similarities in Bitcoin’s price action over the past four months compared to previous years—specifically 2011, 2014, 2018, and 2022.
According to Peterson, these years all experienced sharp Bitcoin declines in November, pointing to a historically recurring “seasonal risk.” He noted that the price action is highly correlated with those years—91%, 90%, 92%, and 82%, respectively. “In most of these periods, Bitcoin experienced heavy losses in November,” he said.
The analyst highlighted the period around November 8th as particularly significant. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced downturns near this date, which aligns with the “30th percentile price path.” Furthermore, Peterson emphasized that the second and third weeks of November have consistently been challenging for Bitcoin over the past four years, indicating this is likely no coincidence.
Peterson explained that the downside risk in November is driven not only by technical factors but also macroeconomic conditions. He pointed out that mid-November marks the period when companies announce third-quarter earnings and revise earnings expectations for the coming year. “Lowering expectations usually leads to a flight from risky assets, and this is reflected in Bitcoin,” he stated.
He also referenced notable past events to underscore his concerns: the onset of the 2018 crypto winter happened in November, the FTX crash occurred on November 8, 2022, and the first signs of the Mt. Gox scandal emerged in November 2013.
“Markets have been jittery in recent weeks, with the VIX rising and stocks selling off sharply amid weak earnings,” Peterson concluded. “It appears the market is looking for a sell signal.”