**Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Turns Negative as BTC Price Slides Below $104,000**

Bitcoin (BTC) extended its recent decline on Friday, slipping to $103,500 and triggering a notable shift in on-chain market sentiment. The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between BTC on Coinbase and other exchanges, flipped red on the hourly chart for the first time in weeks.

Earlier this week, BTC tried to find support around $110,000, buoyed by steady spot demand from U.S. investors. During this period, the Coinbase premium even spiked to 0.18, marking its highest reading since March 2024. However, after failing to hold above $110,000 on Thursday, that short-term confidence faded.

While the hourly premium has turned negative, the daily reading remains slightly positive, indicating that long-term U.S. buying support hasn’t fully disappeared but is currently under strain.

Adding to the bearish pressure, Bitcoin’s taker sell volume surged above $4 billion, signaling a wave of market sell orders. This move coincided with BTC’s rejection near the short-term holder (STH) realized price at $112,370—a key resistance level. Historically, this level marked the average cost basis for recent buyers, meaning a sustained rejection below it could accelerate short-term capitulation toward $100,000.

—

### Bitcoin Mirrors March-April Bottom Structure

BTC’s current price action closely resembles the March-April bottom range, when sharp intra-day wicks cleared out liquidity accumulated over 30 days before a gradual recovery began. This pattern suggests BTC could retest the $100,000 range without necessarily breaking the broader bullish structure—unless it falls decisively below that level.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also dropped to its lowest level since April, hitting 34. This is significant because BTC began recovering on the charts following a similar RSI low in April.

—

### Importance of the 200-Day EMA Support

A key technical indicator to watch is the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which BTC has held for nearly six months. In the previous cycle, BTC maintained this trendline from October 2024 to March 2024 before briefly losing it during consolidation.

Currently, the trendline has held from April to October 2025, though BTC’s price might lose the support in the coming days. If BTC continues to follow its prior fractal, the market may enter a consolidation phase lasting several weeks.

In the first quarter, the recovery phase extended for nearly 45 to 55 days, forming a true bottom only in late April. Applying the same timeline suggests a gradual recovery may not materialize until late November or early December.

Crypto trader Dentoshi echoed this view, stating, “TC has consistently bottomed around the 3-day 100 EMA this bull run — but it’s taken 45-96 days to do so.”

—

**Disclaimer:** This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk. Readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-coinbase-premium-weakens-but-rsi-mirrors-april-bottom-zone?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound