OMAHA, Neb. — New data released by the Agriculture Department on Friday has cast serious doubts on whether China will follow through on purchasing millions of bushels of American soybeans, despite optimistic claims made by the Trump administration last month. These claims followed a high-stakes meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The USDA report, published after the recent government reopening, showed only two Chinese purchases of American soybeans since the summit in South Korea, totaling 332,000 metric tons. This figure falls drastically short of the 12 million metric tons that Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said China agreed to purchase by January and is nowhere near the 25 million metric tons she predicted for each of the next three years.

American farmers had hoped their largest customer would resume buying their crops. However, Tanner Ehmke, lead economist for grains and oilseed at CoBank, explained that there is currently little incentive for China to buy from the U.S. because they have ample soybean supplies from Brazil and other South American countries. Furthermore, existing tariffs keep U.S. soybeans more expensive than Brazilian beans.

“We are still not even close to what has been advertised from the U.S. in terms of what the agreement would have been,” Ehmke said.

To date, Beijing has not confirmed any detailed soybean purchase agreement, only stating that both sides have reached a “consensus” on expanding trade in farm products. Ehmke also pointed out that even if China promised to buy American soybeans, it may have done so contingent on favorable prices.

The White House did not immediately respond to inquiries concerning the disappointing lack of Chinese purchases or whether farmers should still expect a substantial aid package, as President Trump had previously promised.

The Chinese tariff on American soybeans remains high at approximately 24%, despite a 10-percentage-point reduction following the summit. On Friday, soybean prices dropped sharply by 23 cents to $11.24 per bushel. According to Ehmke, “that’s the market being shocked by the lack of Chinese demand that was confirmed in USDA data today.”

Although current prices are still above the $10.60 per bushel levels seen before the agreement, prices may continue to decline unless significant new purchases occur.

Before the trade agreement, President Trump had pledged aid packages to help farmers survive the trade war with China. However, this aid was put on hold during the government shutdown, and it remains unclear whether the administration will provide assistance similar to that offered during Trump’s first term.

American farmers have faced similar challenges before during Trump’s initial trade war with China. The 2020 trade agreement promised massive purchases of U.S. crops by China, but the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted trade soon after the agreement took effect. While U.S. farm exports to China hit a record in 2022, they have since fallen.

Interestingly, soybean prices remain slightly higher than a year ago, despite China’s reduced purchases of about one-quarter of the U.S. crop. This is partly because this year’s soybean crop is slightly smaller, and domestic demand has remained strong, propelled by growth in biodiesel production.

Nevertheless, farmers are grappling with soaring costs for fertilizer, seed, equipment, and labor, which are significantly impacting their profits.

Caleb Ragland, a Kentucky farmer and president of the American Soybean Association, expressed concern that thousands of farmers could go out of business this year without significant Chinese purchases or government aid. While he remains hopeful that China will honor its purchase commitments, he admits it is difficult to be confident given the limited sales reported so far.

“We don’t want to assume they won’t. But it’s going to be a wonderful day when we actually deliver those soybeans, and when there’s my money in hand and so forth and the transaction’s complete,” Ragland said.

China is the world’s largest buyer of soybeans. Last year, China purchased more than $12.5 billion worth of the nearly $24.5 billion worth of U.S. soybeans exported. However, after tariffs were imposed by the Trump administration, China stopped buying American soybeans and shifted more of their purchases to South America.

Even before the trade war, Brazilian beans made up over 70% of China’s soybean imports last year, while the U.S. share dropped to 21%, according to World Bank data.

Ragland noted that every vendor he has spoken with is already increasing prices for next year, adding further pressure on farmers.

“We’re still looking at sharp losses and the red ink as we figure budgets for ’26 is still very much in play,” he said.

AP Writer Didi Tang contributed to this report from Washington.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/11/14/usda-data-chinas-soybean-purchase-trump/