**Gemini Files With CFTC to Launch a Crypto-Based Prediction Market Exchange**

Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins, is preparing to enter the rapidly growing prediction market sector. According to a Bloomberg report published November 4, Gemini filed an application with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in May 2025 to operate as a designated contract market. This regulatory status is necessary to run a derivatives exchange where traders can bet on real-world events.

Sources familiar with Gemini’s plans say the company aims to launch these event contracts as soon as possible. In filings prior to its September IPO, Gemini stated its intention to enable trading of event contracts covering economic, financial, political, and sports forecasts.

**Exchange Growth and IPO Highlights**

Gemini went public in September 2025, raising $433 million in an upsized initial public offering. The company debuted on Nasdaq at a valuation of $4.4 billion. Despite its high-profile launch, Gemini’s stock has declined sharply, falling 56% from its IPO price of $37 to $16.29 as of November 4, 2025. Shares closed down 8.43% on the day, ahead of the company’s first earnings report as a public company, scheduled for November 10.

**Prediction Markets Surge in Volume**

The prediction market sector has witnessed rapid expansion over recent months. Leading the way, Kalshi reached $4.4 billion in monthly trading volume in October 2025, marking an all-time high. Polymarket also hit a new milestone with $3 billion in monthly volume during the same period. Weekly trading volume on Kalshi has set new records almost every week since mid-October, reaching $1.2 billion between October 27 and November 2—surpassing the previous week’s record of $1.01 billion. Polymarket also crossed the $1 billion mark in weekly volume.

**Shifting Regulatory Attitudes**

The CFTC has notably shifted its approach to prediction markets. While previously taking a restrictive stance, the regulator now displays increasing openness, paving the way for industry growth and mainstream adoption.

**Major Platforms and Partnerships**

Several prominent financial and crypto platforms have entered the prediction market space. Robinhood partnered with Kalshi in August to offer event contracts on NFL and NCAA college football outcomes. MetaMask, Coinbase, DraftKings, and World have either integrated prediction market features or announced plans to do so.

Institutional interest is growing as well. Intercontinental Exchange recently invested $2 billion in Polymarket at a $9 billion valuation. The National Hockey League entered multi-year licensing agreements with both Kalshi and Polymarket—a first for a major U.S. sports league partnering with prediction market operators.

**Conclusion**

Gemini’s push into regulated prediction markets reflects a broader wave of adoption and innovation in the sector. As trading volumes reach new heights and regulatory attitudes shift, the landscape for betting on real-world events in a secure, compliant fashion is rapidly changing. Stay tuned for Gemini’s upcoming earnings report and further developments in the prediction market space.
https://coincentral.com/gemini-joins-prediction-markets-race-as-kalshi-and-polymarket-hit-record-volumes/