Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei: 25% Chance AI could be catastrophic, 75% chance it could thrive

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei recently spoke at the Axios AI + DC Summit, highlighting both the risks and potential benefits associated with artificial intelligence (AI). He stated there is a 25% chance that AI could lead to catastrophic outcomes, contrasted with a 75% chance that it could produce highly positive results.
Amodei clarified that when he referred to AI going “really, really badly,” he was not talking about minor issues like autocorrect errors. Instead, he meant scenarios capable of destabilizing societal systems, creating existential threats, or leading to severe misuse of AI.
In previous comments, Amodei warned that AI could replace up to half of all entry-level white-collar jobs. He also expressed concern over the export of advanced semiconductor chips to China, underscoring the significant economic and geopolitical stakes tied to AI advancement.
By framing the discussion probabilistically, Amodei emphasized that while risks do exist, human choices and governance can influence the outcomes. This approach offers a balanced perspective that acknowledges potential dangers while also recognizing the opportunities AI could bring.
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In related news, Anthropic PBC has agreed to a minimum payout of $1.5 billion, plus interest, to resolve a class action lawsuit brought by authors who accused the AI start-up of illegally scraping millions of copyrighted works. If additional claims are approved, the total compensation could increase further. Anthropic has also pledged to delete any disputed data it was alleged to have obtained unlawfully.
Legal representatives for the authors described the settlement as unprecedented. Justin Nelson of Susman Godfrey said, “This deal sends a strong message to AI companies and content creators that using copyrighted material from pirate sources is unacceptable.”
While the financial impact is substantial, legal analysts noted that Anthropic may have avoided a far worse outcome. Tod Cohen, partner at Manatt, Phelps & Phillips, commented, “The settlement represents less than one percent of the company’s valuation. It appears to be a favorable result for Anthropic, as it avoids dismantling its models and only needs to remove the contested data.”
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As AI continues to evolve rapidly, the conversation around its risks, benefits, and legal boundaries remains critical for shaping a responsible and innovative future.
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