**Is Bitcoin Showing Signs of a Bottom?**

Bitcoin shorts are being squeezed, and spot-led demand is stepping in. However, macro uncertainty and persistent inflation keep the trend far from guaranteed.

**What Could Drive Bitcoin Into a New All-Time High (ATH)?**

Whales are front-running a bullish leg, but momentum may favor a break rather than a clean run. Shorts are getting squeezed, the crypto market cap is up 4%, and sentiment is edging back toward neutral. In this setup, Bitcoin’s [BTC] retesting of $111k shows spot-led demand stepping in—not just speculative flows.

But does this really signal that BTC has put in a bottom?

—

### ATH in Sight, but CPI and FOMC Loom Large for BTC

The macroeconomic environment continues to challenge Bitcoin’s Q4 tailwinds. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on October 24th, arriving at one of the worst possible times for risk assets. This report comes just five days before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

With inflationary pressures still in play and the U.S.-China trade tensions lingering, economists forecast a 3.1% year-over-year rise in CPI, up from last month. Simply put, the market is expecting consumer prices to climb.

Adding to this uncertainty is the labor market report, which remains under wraps due to the government shutdown.

For context, one key catalyst behind Bitcoin’s surge to $125k in early October was U.S. macro uncertainty. The market priced in a weak labor market, which would have given the Fed room to cut rates at the next FOMC. Now that catalyst has vanished, and inflation remains sticky.

As a result, macro volatility is far from over. Even if the Fed opts to cut rates, risk assets may not experience a clean bullish lift, potentially repeating the post-cut cycle observed in September.

—

### Whales Front-Run While Bitcoin Braces for Volatility

September’s Fed rate cut barely moved the needle for Bitcoin. BTC dropped 8% in the week following the cut after inflation printed +0.2% month-over-month.

Even though BTC punched through $125k to reach a new ATH, the rally lacked follow-through, with fear keeping bulls sidelined and momentum fading.

Given this setup, Bitcoin’s run into price discovery could hit a ceiling.

However, market positioning suggests whales are front-running a bullish leg: perpetual futures markets are leaning long, and leverage is stacking up.

Bitcoin’s November run is anything but linear.

With less than a week to the FOMC, the market is pricing in a near-certain rate cut, expecting the Fed to lean on weak labor data for another 25 basis point reduction despite sticky inflation—just like in September.

But a clean bull run isn’t guaranteed.

Rising longs and a stacked liquidity cluster could make BTC’s push into a new ATH messy, turning the next few days into a high-stakes break-or-make setup, with momentum currently skewed toward the break side.

—

**Conclusion**

While Bitcoin shows signs of resilience with shorts being squeezed and demand stepping in, significant macroeconomic risks remain. Upcoming CPI data and the FOMC meeting will be pivotal in determining whether BTC can sustain a push toward new all-time highs or face volatile corrections. Investors should prepare for a potentially turbulent period ahead.
https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-faces-a-high-stakes-november-cpi-shock-collides-with-fomc